Tournament of Shame II – Move or Die – End of Regular Season Analysis + Discussion

Good day, everyone!  Crawdad back again to bring another break down of how well each player performed in the regular season of the Move or Die Tournament of Shame and discuss how I see things playing out from here.  So, without further adieu, here are your winning results for Heats #1 through #6.


Now you may notice that some numbers are off, such as RockLeeSmile playing 14 rounds of Speed Run and BaerTaffy playing 13 rounds.  This has to do with several things, such as having bye-weeks, competitors performing very well during that heat (I.E. Heat #5), or those rounds ending up with a draw.  The percentages are correct, but they may change based on if they all played the same amount of rounds.  You may also notice that many of the percentages don’t seem to appear as large numbers.  I thought so, too, when I was doing the math, but the thing you have to remember is that this is pulling from their experiences in these game modes against other players.  Things could go right, but things could also go wrong.  However, those small numbers are being compared to other small numbers.

There are a few that break away from that statement, such as BaerTaffy’s amazing ability to win the majority of Speed Run rounds (77%) and RockLeeSmile with his “Law of Averages” strategy in Sugar Rush (61%).  So I’ve decide to write up a list of the percentages of each player, from most successful to least successful.  I will be leaving MathasGames and AlpacaPatrol out of it due to them not making it into the playoffs.


So we have certain game modes that are being runaways, such as RockLeeSmile in Sugar Rush and BaerTaffy in Speed Run.  However, RockLeeSmile is also quite dominant in Blow Back, while BaerTaffy also has a lead in Color Craze.  Northernlion, while not the most prominent player as far as percentages go, has taken a lead in Stomp with 47%.  However, if you’re one to look at the most stable competitor, you’d look to Dan Gheesling.  He has managed to make #2 (even share #1 with Baer on Bomb Tag) on three of the modes.  One wrong move from RockLeeSmile and BaerTaffy, Dan can swoop in and take the win.  Falling Blocks is the only mode that is anyone’s game, all due to the difference between highest percentage to lowest percentage being a mere 10%.

How is this affected by host advantage, though?  Well I wanted to look into that a little bit more, so I decided to pay attention and see when the host wins a certain mode and see how often that occurred .  What you see below is the result of this study.  This, by no means, brings in the question about the lag between the players or graphical glitches that occur.

Blow Back: 9 out of 23 (39%)

Bomb Tag: 13 out of 24 (54%)

Color Craze: 4 out of 25 (16%)

Falling Blocks: 10 out of 25 (40%)

Speed Run: 7 out of 21 (33%)

Stomp: 7 out of 21 (33%)

Sugar Rush: 7 out of 24 (29%)

Total Host Wins: 57 out of 163 (35%)

So really, the hosts of this tournament won less than half of the modes in total of the regular season.  Again, let this not say that there are not underlying problems, only that the competitors did an amazing job dealing with lag and bugs.  Why the numbers aren’t also larger was due to the bugs that the host, himself, had to deal with (I.E. getting stuck in blocks) and, possibly, playing a game mode that they have a low percentage chance of winning.  Let’s use RockLeeSmile as an example for both Bomb Tag and Sugar Rush.  He has a 61% win rate in Sugar Rush and the host advantage is 29%.  That bumps his percentage to win as host to 79%.  However, he only has a 12% win rate in Bomb Tag and host advantage is 54%.  This increases his chances to 18%, which still means BaerTaffy is favored to win that mode.

Finally, you may be interested to know what their chances are to win this thing.  Well first, we must look at their chances of winning from the regular season.  This is gathered from the amount of wins in each round divided by the total of games played.

BaerTaffy with a 35% chance to win his matches.

RockLeeSmile with a 31% chance to win his matches.

Dan Gheesling with a 23% chance to win his matches.

Northernlion with a 22% chance to win his matches.

Not a massive difference, seeing how it’s only a 13% difference between BaerTaffy and Northernlion, but it should give you an idea of how things would look in the playoffs.  If we were to work upon this information, we can assume that their percentages would continue to change accordingly to their wins and total games played during playoffs.  Having said that, I decided to look at how many rounds of each mode may be played (RNG is still depended on due to modes being replayed or draws).  These are just gathered from information recorded, so they may not necessarily be the right amount, especially if everyone puts up a fight.

Blow Back – 3 rounds (RockLeeSmile favored)

Bomb Tag – 4 rounds (BaerTaffy favored)

Color Craze – 4 rounds (BaerTaffy favored)

Falling Blocks – 4 rounds (RockLeeSmile favored)

Speed Run – 3 rounds (BaerTaffy favored)

Stomp – 3 rounds (Northernlion favored)

Sugar Rush – 4 rounds (RockLeeSmile favored)

While both Dan Gheesling and Northernlion are lacking the top spots to be favored during playoffs, you’d noticed it’s pretty much 50/50 between BaerTaffy and RockLeeSmile, given if those numbers occur as listed.  Things do change though, so expect this to not be a final listing of how it’ll play out.

But we can’t leave without one final listing…

For RockLeeSmile to stay first, he must get first place in playoffs.

BaerTaffy can tie for first place for tie breaker if he gets first place and RockLeeSmile gets second place.  BaerTaffy can also become the leader if he gets first place and RockLeeSmile gets third or fourth place.

Dan Gheesling can tie for first place for tie breaker if he gets first place, RockLeeSmile gets fourth place, and Baertaffy gets third place.  Dan Gheesling can also tie for second place for tie breaker if he gets second place and BaerTaffy gets fourth place.

Northernlion can get third place if he gets first place and Dan Gheesling gets fourth place.

The end is fairly near, ladies and gentlemen, so it’s time to pick your choices wisely.  Will the top dogs, BaerTaffy and RockLeeSmile, fight off for dominance or does Dan Gheesling swoop in and recreate the story of being an underdog?  We’ll just have to wait and find out.

2 Responses to “Tournament of Shame II – Move or Die – End of Regular Season Analysis + Discussion”

  1. Kapao says:

    Are the points going with them to the finals? I thought it was anybody’s game… So Northerlion is not capable of winning or have I misunderstood? :b

    • CaspianCrawdad says:

      I assume they would still matter. If that was the case, then yes: Northernlion cannot win the tournament. Like I said though, I’m still quite unsure because they’ve been very hush hush with me as far as the playoffs are concerned, so feel free to take that whole part with a grain of salt. :)

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